An article I wrote for my co. magazine
The development of China’s animal production and feed (APF) industry since the 1980s has been rapid and unprecedented. Major changes in the industry, coupled with urbanisation and increases in personal income have manifested a likely good investment model and industry choice, i.e. an integrated value-chain operations in China’s hog industry.
Below is how these major changes have influenced the industry.
Major changes in the industry (1983 to now)
From “eating enough” to “eating well”
China APF industry transited from a period of “eating enough” to another of “eating well” over two decades, from 1983 to now, of rapid growth.
“Eating enough” covers two sub-periods, from having barely enough meat products to eat (pre-1983) to having an abundant supply of them (1983-1999)[1]. This transition happened in the early-80s, when foreign animal production technology, skills and knowledge were introduced into China. The influx of these overseas expertises increased productivity, introduced western-style farm management systems, increased profitability and cost-effectiveness. They greatly influenced the local producers and kicked started an era of rapid growth for China’s previously backward APF industry.
In 2000, this growth took a new form as China entered a period of “eating well”, i.e. a demand for safer, more nutritious and taste-appealing animal products. The main factors were the growing concerns by the people on animal diseases and banned drug[2] use, benefits of increased protein intake and alternatives from traditional meat products respectively. This change has sustained until today, and it is very likely to last as long as the country develops and as the Chinese food culture becomes increasingly metropolitan.
Changes to consumption patterns
Animal product consumption has been on an uptrend since 1983, and pork remains the Chinese’s favourite despite a drop in consumption from 86 percent in 1983 to 66 percent in 2003. Pork has been the country’s most popular meat since ancient China (2500 BC to 256 BC), and the recent 22 years of tough competition did not topple its leadership. Coupled with the lack of a strong alternative (poultry which is second is lagging far behind[3]), it is very likely that pork would remain China’s top-choice meat for a very long time.
Structurally, traditional pork products (e.g. room-temperature meat, frozen meat, traditional Chinese sausages) are starting to lose their domestic market share to western-influenced processed pork products[4] and refrigerated meat. The main reasons would likely be the people’s concerns over food safety and tastes.
Methodically, the Chinese are buying more of their meat products from super- and hypermarkets, and they have been eating out more often. With clean, modern and comfortable supermarkets (Wal-Mart, Carrefour, Hymall etc) and restaurants (Kentucky Fried Chicken, McDonald’s etc), and other recently-introduced delicacies (strewn mutton, beef and mutton Korean steamboat), who would not?
These structural and methodical changes are likely to continue, culminating in better-developed infrastructure as the Chinese yearn for safer and taste-appealing animal products.
Changes to export situation: market domestication
China’s animal production industry has to succumb to external barriers of trade (BOTs) and grow largely from within the domestic market.
The initial years from 1980 to 1993, exports of most China’s animal products were on an uptrend. However, as a result of external BOTs, China lost its major export markets in Europe, Japan and parts of Asia between 1996 and 2000. Subsequent attempts were met with more setbacks, for example, in 2002, 90 percent of China’s animal production industry was affected by these BOTs and the industry suffered USD9 billion losses.
Internally, China is not structured for exports. It lacks food-safety regulations, product-quality control, standardised production procedures, branding, innovative meat processing technology, disease-prevention enforcement, and comprehensive veterinary laws. Without these, exports would be extremely difficult as potential buyer countries are stepping up their import controls for agricultural products. To develop these, it would take a while and China had only recently started to move towards these structural reforms.
Urbanisation and increase in personal income
There had been a steady urbanisation trend for the past five years. As China develops, more and more rural people can be expected to move to the cities for better job prospects and to improve lifestyle. Hence, it is likely that urbanisation would continue to increase by accumulative head count at least until 2020.
The income gap between urban dwellers and rural people had been widening from 1985 to 2003. It is deduced that the income situation in rural areas would not increase at a faster rate than that in urban cities. Hence, the income gaps would likely continue to widen, and correspondingly, attract more urbanisation.
Statistically, more people would move into the cities and earn more money. Coupled with a discernable past trend (see below) of per capita meat consumption increases, it is therefore very likely that meat consumption would increase at least until 2020.
Why integrated value-chain operations?
Integrated value-chain operations encompass greater control of upstream production and supply, and it could develop a technological edge in its midstream. In addition to effective branding and sales control at the downstream, this operation model tightens the all-round control, ensures a steady supply of raw materials, safeguards its clientele and sales platform, reduces risks and thus has a higher chance of reaping integrated profits from the industry value-chain.
From the all the analyses above, integrated value-chain operations would cost-effectively fulfil China APF industry’s current and projected trends, and pork is the natural choice. Hence, integrated value-chain operations in China’s hog industry would very likely be a good investment model and industry choice.
[1] Including an over-supply of meat from 1993 to 1997
[2] A banned growth-promoting drug, clenbuterol, was found in Chinese hogs in the late-1990s and early-2000s.
[3] In 2004, China’s pork consumption was 47.75 million tonnes, while that of poultry meat was only 13.51 million tonnes. The other meats are even lesser.
[4] Both western-style processed pork products and high-temperature Chinese sausages